Interesting Times, Expensive Problems
The last few months have been a bit of a whirlwind in politics. In fact, I genuinely cannot recall a time where so much is happening all at the same time. As the old English expression, apparently falsely attributed to a Chinese curse, goes ‘may you live in interesting times’.
Well the last 99 days of Andy Burnham as being prime minister certainly has been.
From the implosion of Reform to the capturing of much of the Green Party’s left leaning anti-Israel vote with the relatively modest sanctions imposed on settlements in the West Bank, Andy Burnham has proven he knows how to desiccate his political enemies.
Now he is actively talking up a return to the EU Single Market and Customs Union, introducing the proposed ‘National Care Service’ as well as considering voting reform as part of the Labour Party’s next manifesto he has pretty much captured every Lib Dem policy anyone can ever name too. The announcement of granting the Jackdaw North Sea gas field drilling licence has even persuaded Tory/Reform voters that he can be more pragmatic than his predecessor.
The net result is that Labour has shot up in the polls, going from mid-teens under Keir Starmer (who?) to almost 30% in the most recent poll of polls. Can things get any better for Burnham? Well…. Likely not!
Tomorrow is his 100th day in office and, quite timely, it coincides with the Budget. At CalComms we have been keeping a very close eye on what could be in the Budget and what it appears will not. These days vast contents of a Budget are leaked to newspapers and social media to ‘focus group’ the popularity of likely measures weeks before the Chancellor speaks. This has been no different. Equalising Capital Gains tax with earnings rates was mooted, then quickly dropped (a leak and then a double leak on the U-turn), measures on the Small Business Rates relief, likely targeting high street vaping shops, and changes to the personal tax codes of those pensioners whose earnings will soon pass the threshold have all been openly mooted and are very likely to be included.
But the big news of this Budget is likely to be the deteriorating international economic picture. UK government bonds are on the rise, outstripping international competitors and spiralling so far out of control that Liz Truss is starting to look like an economic genius. This will shred the Chancellor’s room for manoeuvre and possibly lead him to make further tax changes. The problem John Healy has is that he is hamstrung by Keir Starmer’s (nope, still can’t recall) manifesto which this Labour Government is bound by. No VAT, personal National Insurance or Income Tax rises mean that the Chancellor will have to find his money elsewhere.
But where is this money? The country has had two massive tax raising Budgets under Rachel Reeves. To paraphrase a former Labour minister, there may be no money left. We don’t have much more time to wait to find out.
