The race for third place: Are Reform the new Liberal Democrats?
Despite its anti-establishment rhetoric, Reform UK increasingly resembles the Liberal Democrats rather than a future party of Government. Its strength may lie not in overturning Britain's two-party system, but in converting national support into local political influence.
Reform UK and the Liberal Democrats share a great deal in common in terms of their political positioning nationally and locally. In many respects, Reform has replaced the Liberal Democrats as the UK's third political force, with around 21% of national voting intention. However, like its predecessor, Reform appears to be gradually declining from its post-election peak, which reached around 28% in national polling. Notably, even at its height, Reform was not a formidable force capable of fundamentally threatening the traditional structure of British politics, despite the anti-establishment narrative it continues to project. Labour and the Conservatives remain the dominant parties, with Reform and the Liberal Democrats occupying the space behind them. They can influence political debate and shift the political conversation, but neither has yet demonstrated the ability to break the long-standing reality of two-party politics on a national scale.
However, being a third-place contender nationally is far from a powerless position. Rather, it provides a substantial and credible support base that can be translated into significant influence at a local government level. The Liberal Democrats have demonstrated this for decades. While the party has largely been absent from national power since the coalition government, it has remained a major presence in local government. Liberal Democrat-led councils increased from around 8% in 2015 to 17% today, while historically the party controlled around 21% of councils during the 1990s. Today, the Liberal Democrats lead 76 councils, more than the Conservatives. Reform appears to be following a similar trajectory. In the May 2026 elections, the party gained control of 10 councils and won 677 council seats, accounting for 41% of all seats contested. This established a significant foothold across the country and demonstrated that Reform's political strength may ultimately lie more in local government than Westminster. In the past eight weeks alone, Reform has won ward seats in five by-elections, taking seats from both Labour and the Conservatives while also securing outright control of administrations. Together, these developments underline the growing presence, relevance and electoral threat Reform poses in local government, even if national politics remains firmly centred around Labour and the Conservatives.
The relative apathy of the Liberal Democrats is also a factor here. The Party has arguably not capitalised on its 71 MPs, with Sir Ed Davey choosing to use his weekly slot at PMQ’s to raise international issues on which the Government has little impact, rather than seek to place markers in the public consciousness.
Why is this politically significant?
Reform's political significance therefore lies increasingly in local government, particularly following this year's elections and with the May 2027 elections approaching. The party is likely to seek to accelerate political momentum through highly localised and politically sensitive issues such as planning, housing, Net Zero policies and data centre developments. These issues provide fertile political ground on which Reform can consolidate support, mobilise opposition and expand its influence across multiple parts of the country. Reform has also developed a habit of campaigning aggressively on particular issues before softening its position once in power. Notably, whether Reform genuinely believes in a particular policy can at times appear secondary to the political value of opposing it. Walsall provides a useful example of this dynamic. Opposition to Green Belt release formed a central part of Reform's electoral appeal, while Richard Tice's planning proposals, which sought to constrain greenfield development and accelerate brownfield construction, helped consolidate support amongst local voters. Yet once in office, the administration has demonstrated a greater degree of flexibility on Green Belt issues than its campaign rhetoric suggested. This exposes a wider tension at the heart of Reform's growth: the politics of opposition and the realities of governing are often very different propositions.
A key point, however, is that a plausible and sustained return to two-party politics at a national level does not diminish Reform UK's growing significance in local government. Much like the Liberal Democrats before them, Reform are a formidable local political force capable of shaping debates, influencing priorities and building electoral support through contentious local issues. Its greatest strength is not its ability to win power nationally, but its ability to accumulate political capital locally. As the 2027 elections approach, planning, housing and other contentious development issues are likely to become increasingly valuable political battlegrounds through which Reform can consolidate and expand support. Whether the party ultimately governs in line with the positions it campaigns on remains far less certain.
