Could the Milburn Review lead to Labour infighting?
Alan Milburn’s Review on Young People and Work will be released this coming Tuesday, according to the Times. Key points are, however, being trailed now.
The key points released so far include a new “youth allowance” leading to less benefits for most under-25s, with the savings going into stronger employment, health and training support. Those with severe disabilities would receive enhanced protection.
Milburn’s argument is that the current system traps too many young people in a vicious circle and locks them out of work and education.
Politically, the Opposition parties will have their own comments on the proposals, especially in the run up to the full report being released, but this post looks into the threats coming to the proposals from the Labour Party’s own left-wing factions.
Andy Burnham has inherited Keir Starmer’s healthy majority, but he has also inherited a Labour backbench who have shown a strong sense of feeling against harsh welfare reforms.
… "who can we tax in order to pay benefits to others"?
There is broad acceptance within the Labour Party of both the need to address the NEET crisis, as well as placing the blame on the Coalition Government’s Austerity policies of the 2010s.
However, the “how” is likely to be the main point of contention with the Party, and could lead to Andy Burnham’s first major battle with a section of the Parliamentary Labour Party (PLP). It is even more likely that the reforms could lead to anger within the wider Labour Party, namely the councillors and activists the Party rely on to put their message across doorstops. Burnham’s ascension to Number 10, which did not include a traditional leadership election, could exacerbate this criticism.
Should members of the Labour left-wing threaten rebellion over the Milburn Report and subsequent reforms, then there are two likely areas of concerns.
Firstly, some MPs have already expressed concerns that disability or health-related benefits could come with conditions on applicants taking part in training, employment support, or other work preparation activities.
Secondly, some Labour MPs, especially those who believe that benefits should be universal, may raise concerns that under-25s will be treated differently than over-25s based on assumptions about their support systems (such as relying on their parents) which may not be universally applicable to under-25s.
In short, some Labour MPs may argue the issue is lack of investment, not excessive support for young people on benefits. This argument has already been put forward by the Trades Union Congress (TUC), which although doesn’t directly provide funding to the Labour Party does represent 13 trade unions which do.
What does the public think?
Polling carried out by YouGov/Tony Blair Institute, the Department for Work & Pensions (DWP), the British Social Attitudes Survey and others point to the British public holding two, somewhat contradictory positions:
The welfare system is too permissive and should instead help people into work
People are strongly opposed to cutting support for disabled people who genuinely cannot work
The Labour left’s expected arguments against the proposed welfare reforms, outlined above, would therefore seem out-of-step with public opinion, but Andy Burnham will need to consider where the public are on this subject, and make sure that the expected reforms are communicated clearly.
The path to victory at the ballot box will in large part rely on how the Government can make the argument to the public. One thing is certain, however – Burnham is much better placed to do this than his successor.
